Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 3 / 2013 (580)
Analysing movements in investor’s risk aversion using the Heston volatility model
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Andrei HREBENCIUC
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Ana-Maria SĂNDICĂ
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Abstract. In this paper we intend to identify and analyze, if it is the case, an “epidemiological” relationship between forecasts of professional investors and short-term developments in the EUR/RON exchange rate. Even that we don’t call a typical epidemiological model as those ones used in biology fields of research, we investigated the hypothesis according to which after the Lehman Brothers crash and implicit the generation of the current financial crisis, the forecasts of professional investors pose a significant explanatory power on the futures short-run movements of EUR/RON. How does it work this mechanism? Firstly, the professional forecasters account for the current macro, financial and political states, then they elaborate forecasts. Secondly, based on that forecasts they get positions in the Romanian exchange market for hedging and/or speculation purposes. But their positions incorporate in addition different degrees of uncertainty. In parallel, a part of their anticipations are disseminated to the public via media channels. Since some important movements are viewed within macro, financial or political fields, the positions of professsional investors from FX derivative market are activated. The current study represents a first step in that direction of analysis for Romanian case. For the above formulated objectives, in this paper different measures of EUR/RON rate volatility have been estimated and compared with implied volatilities. In a second timeframe we called the co-integration and dynamic correlation based tools in order to investigate the relationship between implied volatility and daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate.
Contents
Sustainability of the public debt and the financial crisis
The lending channel and budget balance: empirical evidences from Central and Eastern European economies
Heterogeneous capital and consumption goods in a structurally generalized Uzawa’s model
Differences between the nominal values of the gross domestic product and the provisional and semi-final variant
Forecasting the variance and return of Mexican financial series with symmetric GARCH models
Meanings and spreading patterns of the “positive” concept in economic thought
Implications of the single supervisory mechanism on ECB's functions and on credit institutions' activity
Analysing movements in investor’s risk aversion using the Heston volatility model
The labour market in the post-crisis economy: the case of Spain
Liberalisation and regulation in the financial crisis – is behavioural economics a solution?