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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 2 / 2016 (607), Summer

Estimating the exchange rate in the context of Romania's integration in the Eurozone

Laura Mădălina PÎRŞCOVEANU
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania

Abstract. In this article I want to elaborate a case study on for estimating the equilibrium exchange rate in the context of Romania’s accession to the Eurozone. This paper reveals an econometric model between real exchange rate and its determining factors based on the methodology BEER.

I started this study because currently the challenge for Romania is joining ERM II and hence the Economic and Monetary Union. Given the exchange rate volatility and the implications it may have on the Romanian economy, it is important to determine whether or not there were internal devaluations.

Keywords: currency, ERM II, optimum currency area, exchange rate undervalued/overvalued, the trade openness.

Contents

1

The prerequisites of social development when planning for decentralization

Cătălin Daniel DUMITRICĂ · Teodora I. BIŢOIU · Dragoş DINCĂ

2

Testing the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: New evidence from structural breaks for Turkey

Ekrem ERDEM · Ahmet KOSEOGLU · Ali Gokhan YUCEL

3

The role of institutional pressures in developing countries. Implications for IFRS

Cătălina Florentina PRICOPE

4

Children’s health insurance coverage in the United States: The role of parents’ ethnicity and immigration status

Swarn CHATTERJEE

5

Axiomatical examination of the neoclassical economic model. Logical assessment of the assumptions of neoclassical economic model

Ada MARINESCU

6

An empirical investigation of banking sector development and economic growth in a panel of selected SAARC countries

Javed AHMED · Malik Fahim BASHIR

7

A common agency within bureaucracy

Nadide Banu OLCAY

8

From public services to networks of social enterprises. Strategic trends for South-Eastern Europe

Ani MATEI · Carmen SĂVULESCU · Corina-Georgiana ANTONOVICI

9

The relationship between inclusive growth, inequality and poverty in Africa

Mohamed BEN AMAR · Nahed ZGHIDI

10

Investigation of relation between foreign portfolio investments and stock prices: Time varying asymmetric causality analysis

Gülfen TUNA · Samet KUNDAKÇIOĞLU

11

Asymmetric stochastic volatility in central and eastern European stock markets

Aycan HEPSAG

12

Bankruptcy prediction based on the debt ratio

Daniel BRÎNDESCU-OLARIU

13

The effects of saving-investment gap on economic growth in developing countries: A clustering and panel data analysis

Ismet GOCER · Tugba AKIN · Sedat ALATAS

14

Impact of educational expenditure on economic growth in major Asian countries: Evidence from econometric analysis

Lingaraj MALLICK · Pradeep Kumar DAS · Kalandi Charan PRADHAN

15

Developing a financial inclusion index and inclusive growth in India

Susanta Kumar SETHY

16

A comprehensive view on the manifestations of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal

Ionuț JIANU

17

Examining the determinants of FDI inflows in India

Shiba Shankar PATTAYAT

18

A review of corruption based on the social and economic evolution of Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome

Ciprian ROTARU · Dumitru-Alexandru BOD · Raluca GEORGESCU

19

Estimating the exchange rate in the context of Romania's integration in the Eurozone

Laura Mădălina PÎRŞCOVEANU