Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 10 / 2013 (587)
Forecasting of the economic crisis using business cycles patterns
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Dorel AILENEI
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Abstract. The current global economic crisis has brought to the forefront of scientific research the issues of business cycles, particularly highlighting signals that predict ruptures in the normal dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations. In this sense a very important concern for the specialists relates to the identification of instruments capable of describing business cycles as accurately as possible. The problem is quite complicated because of the irregular (duration and amplitude) and asymmetric (by comparing recessionary gaps to inflation gaps) shapes. A very effective tool used for this purpose is the random recursive algorithm BBQ of James Engel. The authors aim to test the validity of this algorithm for the Romanian economy using monthly frequency data from 1991:01- 2012:05 period for the industrial production in order to identify specific characteristics of the business cycle.
Contents
The Balkan balneotherapy product – an approach from the destination marketing perspective
A new vision on competitiveness within the post-crisis economy. Causes, evolutions and possible innovative solutions to fight against the undesirable effects of the economic crisis
Estimating the size of Romanian shadow economy using Gutmann’s simple currency ratio approach
Motivation of the public employee in Romania in the context of the economic crisis
Urban revitalisation in the creative economy and the development of the creative society
Modeling the relationship between GDP and unemployment for Okun’s law specific to Pakistan during 1976-2010
Education for sustainability – a prerequisite for post-crisis economic competitiveness with possible inference for Romania
Forecasting of the economic crisis using business cycles patterns
The role of the human capital and investment in human capital within the sustainable socio-economic development. How labour force migration affects competitiveness?
Costing systems design for sustainability