Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2018 (614), Spring
The effects of Turkish-Russian political relations on bilateral trade balance: Cointegration and causal analysis
Sakarya University, Turkey
Liudmila LIAPINA
Sakarya University, Turkey
Abstract. The development of political relations between countries usually causes some changes in the volume of countries’ foreign trade with each other as well. In this context, every worsening of political relations between the countries is supposed to reduce the foreign trade volume, as well as the betterment of political relations is expected to increase it. Therefore, countries willing to benefit from foreign trade have to maintain good political relations with the other countries. In this paper we examine long run determinants of the trade balance between Turkey and Russia, giving particular thought to the influence of the political relations between two countries on their foreign trade. The model is conducted by using quarterly data over the period from 1996 to 2016. The paper confirms the existence of long run negative relationships between reel effective exchange rates, foreign policy crises and trade balance. However, the influence of foreign policy successes turned out to not have any significant effects on the trade balance.
Contents
Political economy map – A useful tool for public policy decision makers
Macroeconomic uncertainty and FDI in developing countries
Impact of foreign direct investment inflows on tax revenues in OECD countries: A panel cointegration and causality analysis
Macroprudential stability indicators of financial systems: Analysis of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia
Does exchange rate always affect the number of inbound tourists significantly in China?
The effects of Turkish-Russian political relations on bilateral trade balance: Cointegration and causal analysis
The relationship between financial deepening and economic growth: Bootstrap causality approach for the selected upper middle income countries
Financial development, trade openness and growth in India
The impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on tourism: Does the source of emission matter?
Effect of exchange rate policy on GDP and GDP components: The Kyrgyz Republic Case
Dynamic linkages between corruption, economic growth, and income inequality in Pakistan: Say ‘No’ to corruption
Impact of defence expenditures on external debt: An econometric analysis for Turkey and Turkic Republics