Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2025 (642), Spring
The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
Cristina BEJENARU
Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA
Alin-Ioan VID
Abstract. The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models for characterizing business cycles, and the Granger causality technique is used to analyze the relationship between external shocks and economic growth, separately during financial and pandemic crises. The results indicated that, in the case of Romania, the global financial crisis has a longer period of negative growth rates, but a faster recovery from health crisis. It is also noted that the Czech Republic and Hungary have a more stable economic evolution over time. In addition, the causality test indicates unidirectional causality between external factors and the GDP growth rate during financial and pandemic crises.
Contents
The impact of agro-food imports from Ukraine on the Romanian market: a post-conflict economic analysis
An empirical analysis of foreign trade concentration between Türkiye and Egypt (2005-2023)
The three-ways linkages between domestic investment, exports and economic growth: new evidence from Saudi Arabia
Local resilience in the context of digital transition: development policy perspectives from Romania and Moldova
Customs unions and trade spillovers: from bilateral agreements to multilateral impact
The impact of foreign direct investment on carbon emissions in China: a provincial panel data analysis
Quantitative insights into the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth: an econometric evaluation of Arab countries (2011-2022)
The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
The lasting impact of COVID-19. How the pandemic reshaped human behaviour
Asymmetric effect of monetary policy on stock market performance in the ECOWAS zone: empirical evidence from the NARDL approach
The effect of inflation and fiscal decentralization on income inequality in Sumatra Island of Indonesia: a panel data
Exploring the relationship between the Put Call Ratio and Market Indices: a comparative analysis of S&P 500 and BET
Macro-economic determinants of financial inclusion: evidence from West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)
Tax and macroeconomic framework. The case of Greece
Consumerism and capitalism: dynamic evolution, economic benefits, and ethical challenges
Business cycle synchronization of Tunisia and Euro Zone countries: a parametric and non-parametric analysis
Macro analysis of linkages between export, import and economic growth: evidence from the Indian economy
From lab to market: how governments and enterprises compose the future of innovation
Improving human development in West African countries: do cryptocurrencies matter?
Romanian knowledge and attitude on sustainability and sustainable clothing: exploring the reliability and validity of a measurement scale
Estimating Romania’s potential GDP: a production function and multivariate approach
Fiscal adjustment and economics growth in Senegal