Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2016 (609), Winter
Limitation of ARIMA models in financial and monetary economics
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania
Stelian STANCU
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania
Alexandru TINDECHE
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania
Abstract. Abandoning the classical econometric modeling approach which consists in using explanatory variables (suggested by economic theory for prediction), we choose instead to use a sophisticated method developed by Box and Jenkins (1970) based solely on the past behavior of the variable being modeled/forecast.
As we are in a data-rich environment and the economies and financial markets are more integrated than ever before, the quantitative methods in business and finance has increased substantially in recent years.
This paper investigates the limitation of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in financial and monetary economics using the behavior of BET Index and EUR/RON exchange rates, respectively. Two important features discovered in the analysis of financial time series in this paper are fat-tails (large losses or gains are coming at a higher probability than the normal distribution would suggest) and volatility clustering, these empirical properties can’t be captured by integrated ARMA models, hence the limitation of these models.
Contents
The influence of fiscal freedom, government effectiveness and human development index on tax evasion in the European Union
Limitation of ARIMA models in financial and monetary economics
The Romania's challenges regarding the integration in the Euro Area
Does remittance drive economic growth in emerging economies: Evidence from FMOLS and Panel VECM
Effectiveness of monetary policies in OECD countries
Determinants of household loans
Tourism and economic structural change with endogenous wealth and human capital and elastic labor supply
Migration – trade nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from Turkish emigrants in OECD countries
New pillars of the banking business model or a new model of doing banking?
Effects of R&D and innovation on income in EU countries: new generation panel cointegration and causality analysis
The major economic evolution of Romania by the middle of 2016
Foreign aid, macroeconomic policies and economic growth nexus in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach
Human nature in the economic behavior based on the neoclassical economic model
Determinants of nonperforming assets-bank-specific and macroeconomic factors: A panel data analysis of different group of commercial banks operating in India
Gradualistic strategy of transition to market economy
Financial liberalization and economic growth: Evidence from Tunisia
Public target space as key factor for public policy implementation
The relationships among the returns of investment instruments: a vector autoregressive approach for Turkey
Current account sustainability in SAARC economies: Evidence from combined cointegration approach
Information asymmetry and technical efficiency: Case of a panel of Tunisian insurance companies
FDI and export spillovers using Heckman’s two step approach: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing data