Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 2 / 2017 (611), Summer
An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners
Necmettin Erbakan University, Turkey
Abstract. There are two methods to determine the impact of real exchange rate on balance of foreign trade. While previous studies, which aim to uncover the nexus between foreign balance and real exchange rate, use foreign trade statistics to measure the volume of foreign trade, some other recent studies utilize bilateral trade statistics. By following current literature, this study draws from the model of Rose and Yellen (1989) and analyzes the relationship between the volume of bilateral foreign trade and bilateral real exchange rate in Turkey and her 20 major trading partners for the period from 1995 to 2015. To this purpose, the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries was investigated, and long-term coefficients for each country were obtained with the Mean Group Estimator (MG) method developed by Pesaran and Smith (1995). In conclusion, the findings revealed that bilateral real exchange rate has a statistically significant negative effect on the bilateral foreign trade balance in 10 out of 20 countries in the panel. This negative relationship means that depreciation of the Turkish Lira (TL) against the currency of trading partners improves bilateral foreign balance, and thus, the J-curve effect in these countries is verified. Moreover, Canning and Pedroni (2008) panel causality test results indicate that bilateral real exchange rates cause bilateral foreign trade balance in Turkey with her 14 trading partners.
Contents
The role of fiscal policy in the financial crisis. Challenges and solutions
Using the input-output model in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting studies
Panel causality analysis between exchange rates and stock indexes for fragile five
Modeling of stock indices with HMM-SV models
The impact of private sector credit on income inequalities in European Union (15 member states)
Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis
The main correlations between the monetary-banking indicators
Impact of governance on budget deficit in developing countries
Private equity market developments in central and Eastern Europe
Public-Private Partnerships for clean energy investment in developing and emerging economies: Allocating risks and sharing rewards
Science is measurement, yet not all sciences can be evaluated using the same measurement
The effects of real exchange rates and income on the trade balance: A second generation panel data analysis for transition economies and Turkey
Child policy changes and estimation of income distribution effects
An enquiry into the dynamics of real oil prices: A state space approach
Wage inequalities in Romania under successive adjustments in minimum wage levels
An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners
Do military expenditures converge in NATO countries? Linear and nonlinear unit root test evidence
Impact of GDP and tax revenue on health care financing: An empirical investigation from Indian states
The relation between foreign direct investments and some economic indicators. The case of Romanian economy
Economic freedom and foreign direct investment in South Asian countries
New software for identification and evaluation of environmental and waste management in the companies
An analysis of the effect of monetary policy changes on macroeconomic factors
The costs of Brexit for UK economy