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Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 2 / 2017 (611), Summer

The costs of Brexit for UK economy

Andrei HREBENCIUC
The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Romania

Abstract. Leaving the EU without a deal in place for future trading agreements would be the worstcase scenario for British economy. In the long-run Brexit is expected to reduce UK living standards due to the declines in trade and foreign direct investments. The British economy will suffer from the losses implied in the export sectors due to the fact that 45% of its exports are destined to EU members. The potential loss of importance for the City of London will generate a fragmented European financial market that will reduce systemic risk. On the other hand, market participants could face a dual regulation on financial markets, increased uncertainties and frictional costs. The plan to design a Capital Market Union will create a strong competition for London, while Frankfurt and Paris are eager to absorb the financial services lost by British economy.

Keywords: banking union, financial markets, financial services, trade policy.

Contents

1

The role of fiscal policy in the financial crisis. Challenges and solutions

Aura Gabriela SOCOL · Roxana Mirela FERARU

2

Using the input-output model in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting studies

Constantin ANGHELACHE · Alexandru MANOLE · Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL

3

Panel causality analysis between exchange rates and stock indexes for fragile five

Mehmet PEKKAYA · Ersin AÇIKGÖZ · Veli YILANCI

4

Modeling of stock indices with HMM-SV models

E.B. NKEMNOLE · J.T. WULU

5

The impact of private sector credit on income inequalities in European Union (15 member states)

Ionuţ JIANU

6

Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis

Ceyhun Can OZCAN · Murat ASLAN · Saban NAZLIOGLU

7

The main correlations between the monetary-banking indicators

Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL · Constantin ANGHELACHE · Ana CARP

8

Impact of governance on budget deficit in developing countries

Salih BARIŞIK · Abdullah BARIS

9

Private equity market developments in central and Eastern Europe

Mihaela DIACONU

10

Public-Private Partnerships for clean energy investment in developing and emerging economies: Allocating risks and sharing rewards

Hilmar Þór HILMARSSON

11

Science is measurement, yet not all sciences can be evaluated using the same measurement

Vlad NERĂU

12

The effects of real exchange rates and income on the trade balance: A second generation panel data analysis for transition economies and Turkey

Sevgi SEZER

13

Child policy changes and estimation of income distribution effects

Eva MILITARU · Amalia CRISTESCU

14

An enquiry into the dynamics of real oil prices: A state space approach

Jaweriah HAZRANA · Aaisha NAZRANA

15

Wage inequalities in Romania under successive adjustments in minimum wage levels

Mădălina Ecaterina POPESCU · Eva MILITARU

16

An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners

Şerife ÖZŞAHİN

17

Do military expenditures converge in NATO countries? Linear and nonlinear unit root test evidence

Selahattin GÜRİŞ · Burak GÜRİŞ · Muhammed TIRAŞOĞLU

18

Impact of GDP and tax revenue on health care financing: An empirical investigation from Indian states

Deepak Kumar BEHERA · Umakant DASH

19

The relation between foreign direct investments and some economic indicators. The case of Romanian economy

Mirela PANAIT · Cătălin VOICA

20

Economic freedom and foreign direct investment in South Asian countries

Sadia IMTIAZ · Malik Fahim BASHIR

21

New software for identification and evaluation of environmental and waste management in the companies

Rodica BUCUROIU · Marius Gabriel PETRESCU

22

An analysis of the effect of monetary policy changes on macroeconomic factors

Moid U. AHMAD · Shamima NASRIN

23

The costs of Brexit for UK economy

Andrei HREBENCIUC