Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 4 / 2025 (645), Winter
Beyond linearity: an ARDL threshold analysis of inflation's impact on Tanzania's economic growth from 1994 to 2024
Mzumbe University, Tanzania
Neema MFUGALE
Institute of Accountancy Arusha, Tanzania
Abstract. This study examines the threshold effect of inflation on Tanzania’s economic growth using annual data from 1990–2024 and a quadratic regression within the ARDL framework. The analysis identifies a clear inflation threshold at 5.82%, indicating that inflation’s impact on growth turns negative beyond this point. Tanzania has mostly maintained inflation below this level since 2015, coinciding with stable growth, suggesting the economy has operated within a safe inflation zone. Therefore, the Bank of Tanzania should keep inflation below 5.8% through coordinated monetary–fiscal policies and strong data monitoring to maintain moderate, stable inflation that supports long-term growth.
Contents
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How do energy consumption, natural resources, trade openness and FDI affect environmental quality in Algeria? Fresh insights from the novel DYNARDL simulations and KRLS approach
The acceleration of education: professors, AI platforms and the transformation of learning and human growth
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Assessing the relationship between institutions and economic development
Cedi depreciation and petroleum price shocks: economic interlinkages and macroeconomic implications
Effects of climate change on food security and sustainable development in Saudi Arabia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach
Corruption in digital environments
Beyond linearity: an ARDL threshold analysis of inflation's impact on Tanzania's economic growth from 1994 to 2024
Sustainable consumption and experimental economics – a bibliometric analysis
Heterogeneous and dynamic impacts of growth, urbanization, deforestation, and energy intensity on environmental degradation in Africa using the MM-Quantile regression method
Institutional governance in developing countries, political factors as drivers of institutional change: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa