Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2026 (646), Spring
Determinants of inflation in Romania: A VAR approach
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania
Abstract. This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of inflation in Romania using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. The study focuses on the role of monetary policy and real economic activity, proxied by the short-term interest rate (ROBOR 3M) and the output gap, in explaining the dynamics of adjusted CORE2 inflation. The model is estimated on quarterly data covering the period 2020-2024. The results indicate a high degree of inflation persistence, with core inflation dynamics being largely driven by its own shocks, while demand-side factors play a secondary but significant role. Monetary policy effects on inflation are found to be moderate and subject to transmission lags.
Contents
From paradox to opportunity: designing a hybrid REIT Model for Romania's emerging capital market
Human development inequality within and between selected SAARC countries using Mean Log Deviation MLD
The influence of renewable energy consumption and trade openness on carbon emissions in South Africa: an augmented autoregressive distributed lag method application
The hidden side of VAT: modeling compliance and inferring collection shortfalls in Romania
The dynamic nexus between oil price fluctuations, exchange rate volatility, and economic growth: empirical evidence from Algeria
Does unemployment influence out-of-pocket health expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa countries? Evidence from the defactored instrumental variables method
From transposition to distortion: how OECD corporate governance principles were misapplied in Romanian state-owned enterprise legislation
Information transmission in the foreign exchange market: evidence from India
The evolution of green energy utilization in Romania
On the equivalence and nonequivalence of import subsidies and export subsidies
AI-simulated reciprocity and the narrowing of decision options within human attachment psychological architecture
Shockwaves abroad and the vulnerability of monetary policy: Morocco’s Central Bank response to geopolitical shocks and commodity price volatility
Impact of growth and tax on pollution in the presence of corruption
Heterogeneous effect of financial inclusion on economic complexity in developing countries
Human ethics vs. algorithmic ethics: the limits of automating moral decision-making
Migrants remittances and economic growth in Morocco: A VAR model analysis
Determinants of inflation in Romania: A VAR approach
Effect of information and communication technologies on life expectancy and under-five mortality in WAEMU countries
Application of PHH and PHE model to Investigative FDI inflows effects on CO2 emissions in developing countries (OECD & BRICS)
Internal vs external migration: comparative patterns within the EU