Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 2 / 2019 (619), Summer
Empirical examination of the stability of expectations – Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries
Istanbul University, Turkey
Muhittin KAPLAN
Istanbul University, Turkey
Abstract. The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment; therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with country-specific factors and the examination time periods. Considering the importance of this trade-off for policy-makers, this study aims to examine validity and stability of expectations-augmented Phillips Curve across 41 countries focusing on three different time periods between 1980 and 2016. The study documents several findings both in country-specific and in panel estimation analysis. First, we find that forward-looking characteristic of inflation picks up weight after 1990’s which indicates that inflation became more sensitive to the expected prices. Second, we observe that inflation in developed markets is more forward-looking comparing to emerging and frontier markets. This indicates that developed markets dear forward-looking price expectations more than other markets. Third, we find that that both forward- and backward-looking Phillips Curve fails to work in Brazil, Greece, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Romania, and Turkey. We address it to their long history of high and volatile inflation.
Contents
The education and training. Priorities of the European Union
Posted offers in exogenous networks: A theoretical application and experimental results
The role of Japan in the development of emerging markets in Asia. Key lessons learned for China
Empirical examination of the stability of expectations – Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries
The causality between economic growth and stock market in developing and developed countries: Toda-Yamamoto approach
Government failure vs. Market failure. The implications of incomplete information
Foreign direct investment and total factor productivity in South Asia
The effects of political and financial risks on foreign direct investments to the MENAT countries
Exploring the nexus between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns in Germany: An ARDL Co-integration approach
Income inequalities and economic convergence in CEE countries
Exchange rate regimes and its impact on growth: An empirical analysis of BRICS countries
Dynamics of business cycle and long-term economic growth of Pakistan
Per capita gross domestic product and welfare of Gabonese households: A VAR model with exogenous hypothesis
Co-integration with regime shift between government expenditure and poverty reduction in Algeria
Trade in a two sector endogenous growth model with two accumulating factors
What discriminates the welfare outcomes of children in India. A multiple discriminant analysis in selected states