Theoretical and Applied Economics
No. 1 / 2023 (634), Spring
Forecasting the Romanian inflation rate: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) approach
National Institute for Economic Research "Costin C. Kirițescu", Romanian Academy, Romania
Dumitru Alexandru BODISLAV
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania
Abstract. The primary objectives of this paper are to empirically create an univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (model) using Box-Jenkins methodology to forecast Romanian inflation and inspect the prediction performance of the estimated model between October 2021 and October 2022. This study uses Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique for estimation purposes. On the foundation of different selection assessment and diagnostic criteria, the best model is selected to predict inflation in Romania in the short-run. We find that ARIMA (7, 1, 1) model is a suitable one under model identification, parameters estimation, diagnostic checking, and inflation prediction. In-sample forecasting is performed and the estimated ARIMA model reasonably tracks the actual inflation in the sample period.
Contents
Obstacles to innovation and policy implications: exploring the case of Romanian firms
Adjusting the 5C pentagon for better health policymaking: observing the leading behavioural risks factors (diet, smoking, and alcohol consumption)
Incentivizing CEOs via pay and forced turnover: Do tenure and managerial ability matter?
Forecasting the Romanian inflation rate: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) approach
The effects of geopolitical risks on tourism revenues of the Middle East and Asian countries
The potential of macroeconomic forces and ICT in affecting the sectorial growth: ARDL approach in the context of East Asian countries
Validity of asset pricing models in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) information technology index
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An analysis of factors influencing empowerment of rural women through Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana – National Rural Livelihood Mission (SGSY)
The impact of Covid-19 payment moratoria on the Romanian banking system
Uncertainty and monetary policy during the Covid-19 pandemic in Tunisia: Evidence from a Bayesian VAR
Research on the evolution of migration in Romania after the fall of the communist regime
Black Sea and East Mediterranean approach on sustainable development
An economic analysis of trade war and deglobalization in current international relations within the paradigm of globalization
Financial difficulties and economic recession: Evidence from Canadian seniors
Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through in India: Lessons from international experience
The circular economics of constructions
Market mood index and stock market. Evidence from National Stock Exchange
Analysis of the effects of social and fiscal policy on incomes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania